Climate Migration – a new case study by Diakonie Friday February 12th, 2021
Although natural resources, such as water or soil, may seem inexhaustible, in many cases the reality is quite the opposite. Long-term devastation, significant changes in the environment or a natural disaster can fundamentally affect the lives of the inhabitants of a given area and thus deprive them of vital natural resources, housing or livelihood. People in such affected areas are forced to leave their homes and seek their livelihood elsewhere. And this is how the process of environmental migration arises.
The effects of climate change increase the likelihood of environmental migration, creating growing challenges for human development and planning. Such vulnerable people have less opportunity to adapt to avoid these risks. Migration thus often seems to be their last resort or strategy. Climate change is a growing driver of internal migration in particular, and there is a presumption that migration due to climate change will intensify over the next few decades and could accelerate even more after 2050. The international overlap of climate migration can be identified as a fairly likely risk for a smaller country and region more severely affected by the effects of climate change, war conflicts and economic and social crises.
Recent estimates show that by 2050, climate change will force 143 million people to migrate internally. A recent study estimating the number of people affected by the floods by 2100 states that, according to new sea level rise models, it will affect 190 million people for low greenhouse gas emissions, or 630 million people for high greenhouse gas emissions. Migrants can be expected to migrate from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity (e.g. Sahel, inland China, etc.), or from areas affected by rising sea levels and severe storms (e.g. small low-lying islands, coastal areas) to urban centers. Here they will have to settle in the poorest parts of the cities (slums) with all the negatives that result from it.
Author: Robert Stojanov